Friday, December 08, 2006

Case for the Hall: Mark McGwire

Player Stats

Why Yea?
In 1998, McGwire and Sammy Sosa riveted the nation, as both chased and would eventually pass Roger Maris for the single season home run record. McGwire won the battle with Sosa and the record with 70 on the season (though he lost the MVP battle to Sosa). In 1999 McGwire would pass Maris again, with 65 home runs. His career ended after a 29-HR campaign a mere two years later, in 2001, leaving him with a career total of 583 home runs, which ranked fifth all time upon his retirement. He also ended his career with 1,414 RBI's, including 7 seasons with 100 or more. On the home run front he would have 4 seasons (all consecutive, from 1996-1999) with 50 or more and 6 with 40 or more. His home run total, and record setting season, is definitely deserving of the Hall, and his RBI totals are difficult to overlook. Also impressive are his 12 appearances in the All-Star game.

Why Nea?
Beyond the HR and RBI numbers, McGwire's stats are underwhelming. He ended his career with 1,626 base hits. When you consider, then, that over one third of his hits were home runs, he seems like a very hit-or-miss batter. His 1,596 career strikeouts and .263 career average lend more credence to this thought. McGwire, of course, also offered no extra dimension on the basepaths--his double totals are low, let alone triples. Nor was he of much use in the field. Also, if one is to give McGwire major credit for 1998, his final season can only be regarded as an embarrassment: he batted .187 and struck out 118 times on 299 at-bats. And his hit distribution looked very odd: 23 singles, 4 doubles, 0 triples, and 29 home runs.

Summary
Sure, his HR numbers are great and his RBI numbers are impressive. But there are far more unimpressive numbers. The statistic that sticks out most as a sore thumb is the 1,626 hits. Among first basemen in the Hall, only Frank Chance has a lower number. It is difficult to reject the 583 home runs but easy to reject the rest of his numbers (in some ways, it is even easy to reject the home run numbers). And when just one statistic is impressive enough for Hall of Fame consideration, there should be doubts about the rest of a candidate's credentials.

Verdict: No

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Week 14 Predictions

Browns at Steelers
Didn't these teams just play? In Cleveland a big Big Ben 4th quarter carried Pittsburgh. Derek Anderson played well in relief of Charlie Frye, but it's going to be completely different with him starting. Steelers 24, Browns 10

Falcons at Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has been horrible of late. Don't expect their offense to wake up in this game. Falcons 24, Buccaneers 10

Ravens at Chiefs
A huge game for both sides, with both teams seeing their playoff position falter in tough losses last week. This is going to be an interesting game, as one side is very lacking on offense and the other is very lacking on defense. Ravens 17, Chiefs 13

Colts at Jaguars
I said it last week, and it failed me then, but I'm going to again say that the Jaguars are too inconsistent this season for me to trust. Colts 24, Jaguars 19

Vikings at Lions
Who cares? Lions 13, Vikings 9

Patriots at Dolphins
After a win streak, Miami got shut down by those darned Jaguars. New England has barely been scraping by; look for it to continue. Patriots 23, Dolphins 20

Giants at Panthers
The biggest game of the week. It looks like Delhomme will be at less than 100%, if he plays at all, which can only hurt the Panthers. Can you picture Chris Weinke playing well? Giants 24, Panthers 17

Raiders at Bengals
If Cincinnati doesn't win, they don't deserve to make the playoffs. Bengals 38, Raiders 10

Eagles at Redskins
Just a week ago Philly seemed to be in trouble, but now Jeff Garcia looks like an adequate replacement for McNabb. At this point Washington just wants to see Campbell play well. Eagles 27, Redskins 17

Titans at Texans
It's hard to pick against the Titans these days. And it's easy to pick against the Texans. So make this an upset pick. Tennessee's string of close wins is going to run out in a major letdown. Teams tend to fall back to earth when it is least expected. Texans 20, Titans 14

Packers at 49ers
With Rodgers hurt, there can't even be a QB controversy in Green Bay, leaving Favre trying too hard to carry the team. 49ers 27, Packers 24

Seahawks at Cardinals
With Hasselbeck and Alexander back at full strength, you have to take Seattle seriously as a possible NFC rep in the Super Bowl. Seahawks 31, Cardinals 24

Bills at Jets
The Jets could easily go 11-5 looking at their schedule. The Bills, however, are playing everybody tough. This will go down to the wire. Jets 24, Bills 21

Broncos at Chargers
San Diego has barely been scraping by. If Denver's defense (or anyone's defense) can stop Tomlinson they have a chance. However, you can't like Cutler's team in his second start. Chargers 21, Broncos 16

Saints at Cowboys
Game of the year in the NFC here. Romo showed he was human last week, but Brees has been lights out all year. This might come off as an upset even though both teams are 8-4. Saints 31, Cowboys 28

Bears at Rams
St. Louis has got to be frustrated with itself. It will only continue after Grossman struggles again but the Rams are stuck in the mud against the Chicago defense. Bears 10, Rams 3

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

NFL Power Rankings Post Week 13

  1. Chargers 10-2 (+2) They get this spot mostly by default, because their winning games by slim margins against inferior teams, while others are losing to inferior teams.
  2. Colts 10-2 (-1) Who would have thought that Peyton would throw for 350 yards in a loss. A fluke field goal led to this loss, but playing down to the Titans level--again--leaves questions for this team.
  3. Patriots 9-3 (+1) Like the Chargers, they keep barely scraping by. Almost losing to Detroit leaves huge questions for this team, but with no other teams stepping up, they can't be penalized for a win.
  4. Bears 10-2 (+1) Says something about the rest of the team when you can win with a 1.3 passer rating from your QB.
  5. Ravens 9-3 (-3) Perhaps it's not fair to drop them so far for a loss to a very good team, but the timing of the first stagnant offensive display under Billick should be a source of worry.
  6. Cowboys 8-4 (E) Had it not been for one pass, we'd be talking about Romo's coming to earth experience.
  7. Saints 8-4 (E) Bush finally had his breakout game, even though his rushing average could still be better.
  8. Bengals 7-5 (E) The third of a logjam of teams that won, but not impressively enough compared to other teams to move up.
  9. Seahawks 8-4 (+1) The eight teams above them look like they have a chance of doing great things; Seattle is the first big drop from this, almost allowing Jay Cutler to beat them. Seattle's offense is back on track with Alexander and Hasselbeck back, so if they continue winning, they just might be a favorite in the playoffs.
  10. Jaguars 7-5 (+3) This team only gets stranger and stranger. The Dolphins were hot coming in but Jacksonville cooled them off big time.
  11. Jets 7-5 (+3) That was an impressive win. Nobody would have thought that the Jets could cause trouble, but Pennington is back and this team will be able to do some things.
  12. Chiefs 7-5 (-3) Losing to the Browns is inexcusable, especially against Derek Anderson. This defense is going to be the weak link yet again.
  13. Broncos 7-5 (-1) For a first start for Cutler, it could have been worse.
  14. Eagles 6-6 (+8) I really didn't see them beating Carolina, and I definitely didn't see Garcia playing this well. They've gone from also-rans to contenders in just one week.
  15. Panthers 6-6 (-4) Delhomme's first interception was absolutely inexcusable. As goes he the team goes.
  16. Giants 6-6 (-1) Inexcusable is the word of the day, applying here to that coverage on the Witten catch, and that dumb fumble Kiwanuka committed. Manning came back strong, though, which can only encourage Giants fans.
  17. Titans 5-7 (+1) A second team this season wins on a 60+ yard field goal. The Vince Young legend grows as an indirect result.
  18. Falcons 6-6 (+6) After the first quarter, it looked like the Falcons would only tumble further down the rankings. Now, they are right back in the hunt.
  19. Steelers 5-7 (+6) Can't say much, except they won handily, which is what you should expect against a struggling team such as the Bucs.
  20. Browns 4-8 (+10) The big jump comes not just in the impressiveness of their win, beating a division contender, but also because the teams yet to be named all struggled this week.
  21. Bills 5-7 (-4) They hung with the Chargers but LT was just too much.
  22. Dolphins 5-7 (-6) It looked like they were going to finish strong, just like last year, but it came to a crashing halt against the Jags.
  23. Rams 5-7 (-2) Right back to losing, this time to the Cardinals. Bulger has a reason to question his team's desire; a team with such talent at QB, RB, and WR should not struggle like this.
  24. Vikings 5-7 (-5) So much for veteran leadership. We may have seen the last of Brad Johnson on Sunday. He's had a nice career.
  25. Redskins 4-8 (-4) Ladell Betts was the only guy who showed up. Could Portis's injury-stained season lead to an RB controversy next year?
  26. 49ers 5-7 (-3) Somehow you knew the euphoria from the 3-game win streak couldn't last.
  27. Cardinals 3-9 (+4) They got very efficient play from the entire offense. This win could only provide hope for the future (of course, in the desert, it never solidifies).
  28. Texans 4-8 (-1) Yeah, they won, but it was kinda... icky.
  29. Packers 4-8 (-3) Ouch.
  30. Lions 2-10 (+2) Almost beating the Pats was a nice enough showing to put them this high, when you look at the two teams below them.
  31. Raiders 2-10 (-3) The offense is reaching new levels of ineptness. I'll give their defense's strong showing against the Chargers one more week to count in the rankings.
  32. Buccaneers 3-9 (-3) The Gradkowski experiment has failed. Put their horrible offense together with a declining defense and you get a team that has lost its ability to win games.
Week 13 Predictions: 10-6

Monday, December 04, 2006

Thought of the Week: Manny Ramirez

Every day it becomes increasingly more likely that the Boston Red Sox are prepared to trade Manny Ramirez. The real question at this point is almost when and where he will go. The Dodgers seem to be the most likely destination: Fox Sports reports that the two teams have met, and many ESPN writers seem to think that Manny will be headed to the other coast as well.

These things are almost impossible to predict, so am not going to try. Rather, I am going to comment on the 6+ year saga that is the relationship between Boston and Ramirez that began when he was signed for $160 million after the 2000 season: mostly, the points of tension that will probably culminate in his departure from Boston this season.

Trade Talk
There is no question that Ramirez has been a great hitter, and no more of question that he is still a very capable hitter. Despite missing about a fifth of this season, he hit 30 HRs and 100 RBIs for the ninth straight year. And yet, it seems there is always talk of trading him. Often, it is Ramirez himself who spurs the talk, like when he said in 2003 that he wanted to play for the Yankees. In 2005, his home in Boston went for sale. The trade that will likely happen soon is also in part due to Ramirez's express wishes.

Manny Being Manny
Ramirez is probably the only sports figure whose behavior is excused recursively. Whether he's not running to first base, being careless in the field, or getting mad about pitches over the plate, it's just "Manny being Manny" (okay, Boston fans excused that last one because it happened against the Yankees). This strange phenomenon is due to a number of factors, including his production at the plate, which keeps him popular with Boston fans, no matter how boneheaded he can be anywhere outside the batter's box. He is not a Terrell Owens, whose fusses ruin teams. Rather, though Ramirez can do some odd things, they never seem to hurt the team in the end. There's always the trade talk, often spurred by Ramirez's quirks, and you would think he would have been traded already because of them. But his popularity with the fans has thus far prevented a move.

And So, We're Here Today
It is clear that Ramirez has brought much of the tension with the organization on himself. It seems that this time, it will not blow over, and he will be gone. Have the Red Sox finally chosen peace and quiet over one of the best hitters in the game? Even though teams now have no reason to pitch to David Ortiz? The oddballs can never avoid wearing out their welcome, and though it may not be the correct baseball decision, Ramirez has become too much for Boston and the Red Sox.

Sunday, December 03, 2006

NFL Week 13 Action

Browns 31, Chiefs 28 (FINAL)
And now I'm going to leave you all. This has been tiring so I'm not going to stick around for the late games.

Browns 28, Chiefs 28 (9:41, OT)
A long run by Anderson, and the Browns can win this game now. A third upset for the day, after IND-TEN and ARI-STL.

Patriots 28, Lions 21 (2:33, 4th)
Yep. Pats lead. Somehow you knew the Lions would blow this game.

Falcons 24, Redskins 14 (0:21, 4th)
Somehow, you knew that the Redskins would miss on 4th down after that dumb playcall on 3rd down.

Titans 20, Colts 17 (0:07, 4th)
The second 60-yard game-winner of the season has just occurred. For the second straight week the Titans have lucked out in the 4th quarter.

Random Note
Games over: ARI-STL, NO-SF, NYJ-GB. SD-BUF is close to over too thanks to yet another LTTD.

Falcons 24, Redskins 14 (2:00, 4th)
Never say never: a blocked punt from the Redskins gives them a small hope for getting back in this. If time starts to run low, the smart decision is to kick the FG first and then try and recover an onside kick. But all too often teams fail to do this. Lots of interesting games, as the Chiefs-Browns is yet to be decided and will be heading to OT (something I somewhat predicted earlier).

Lions 21, Patriots 21 (8:35, 4th)
In true Lions fashion, they've allowed the Patriots to come back. Odds are probably in New England's favor now.

Falcons 24, Redskins 14 (2:40, 4th)
As the Redskins make a so-far successful last ditch effort, it begs the question--why not open up the passing game sooner?

Whoops---game over.

Chiefs 28, Browns 28 (0:35, 4th)
And with less than a minute to play, the Browns have tied the game. Roughing the passer (a rare deserved one) has given Washington new hope. And with 2:38 to play, the Colts have tied the Titans. Who would have expected so many close games?

Lions 21, Patriots 13 (13:07, 4th)
Congratulations to Jason Hanson, and his 1,500 points. And to the Lions, will they hang on for their own congratulations?

Cardinals 31, Rams 13 (8:14, 4th)
It looks safe to say that the Cardinals will pull off the upset (just as I predicted they would). Meanwhile, the Saints now have a 2-TD lead, and Alex Smith needs to be Joe Montana to pull this one out. Also, there are lots of teams that will need to get going to avert upsets, though the Colts look about to tie or take a lead.

Falcons 24, Redskins 14 (6:22, 4th)
Two observations as the Redskins need a long scoring drive right now to get back into this one. One, people are going to say that Vick is back to being a great NFL QB, even though this is an isolated event at the moment. Two, could there be a running back controversy in Washington next season? Betts has played absolutely lights-out the past couple games.

Chiefs 28, Browns 21 (~5:30, 4th)
As this game nears its conclusion, we can safely say that Trent Green is back: 21 of 25, 4 touchdowns. But this game could still go either way. Derek Anderson has replaced an injured Charlie Frye and been serviceable.

Bears 21, Vikings 6 (late 3rd)
This game is an embarrassment to quarterbacks everywhere.
(att-cmp-yds-int) Johnson 11-26-73-4, Grossman 4-14-30-3
The Bears are not going anywhere if Grossman doesn't get better soon.

Lions 18, Pats 13 (2:18, 3rd)
There's been a lot of insanity and I can't keep up with it all. A safety and FG have given the Lions an awkward 5-point lead.

Titans 17, Colts 14 (12:24, 4th)
The Titans are playing yet another team very tough. Could go either way. Young is doing pretty well, good on 65% of his passes for 2 TD's, with 65 rushing yards. Rookie of the Year perhaps? Maybe if Colston is out for much longer he will be.

Saints 17, 49ers 10 (9:02, 3rd)
Well, they overturned the fumble ruling, but the 49ers held the Saints to a field goal. They are still in the game. Meanwhile, the Bears now lead the Vikings 14-6, on a defensive score. The offense doesn't exist, but the team can still win. And Jerious Norwood just broke off a huge run for the Falcons 23rd consecutive point. Washington is falling apart at the seams.

Saints 14, 49ers 10 (10:52, 3rd)
Now that was creative. The 49ers set up for a normal kickoff, but Nedney booted the ball straight up, even pretending to track a deep kick flight through the air. The 49ers have the ball back and could take the lead, perhaps. Things change in the NFL very rapidly---like with that interception Smith just came right back and threw---and that fumble MacKenzie just did at the end of the play. Or did he never have the pick? This is a very confusing moment in a very close game.

Chargers 17, Bills 14 (8:09, 3rd)
Uh-oh Chargers, uh-oh. Tomlinson will probably take care of this but they need to be careful. The 49ers just scored on a nice 48-yard TD pass from Smith to Bryant. And the Chiefs have extended their lead to 28-14. Lots of these early games are going to go down to the wire.

Random Comment
You know, my point spreads were messed up, but if the scores hold, I'd be 8-1-1 in my predictions by 4:00.

Chargers 17, Bills 7 (11:33, 3rd)
The Bills have finally scored. Can't say the same for Tennesssee, whose drive was halted by Vince Young's second interception. Elsewhere, the Lions are ready to tie the game at 13.

Bears 7, Vikings 3 (10:58, 3rd)
The quarterbacking in this game has been horrid. The teams have thrown a combined 30 passes for just 95 combined yards, with 3 picks. All the attention is on Eli Manning, but Rex Grossman has been struggling mightly of late. He's completed 3 passes to a teammate and 2 to the opposition. The Vikings are currently in the red zone thanks to Chester Taylor.

Falcons 16, Redskins 14 (10:32, 3rd)
Trouble brewing for Washington on a very surreal interception, where Campbell was in trouble and got hit as he threw, where it was bobbled by a D-lineman and picked off. The Redskins looked terrific in the beginning of this game, but it could be unraveling as we speak.

And now the Falcons have taken the lead. It will be interesting to see if the young Campbell can recover.

Saints 14, 49ers 3 (0:43, 2nd)
Just before half, Reggie Bush scores his second touchdown, on his fifth attempt. The Saints took awhile to get their offense generated, but they seem to be on track now. Brees only has 95 yards, so even though the last few weeks made it seem possible that he could pass Marino's single-season yards record, it's looking not so good now.

Chiefs 20, Browns 14, pending review (10:08, 3rd)
This game is going much faster than any of the others. But it might be one of the last to be decided. Charlie Frye is 11 of 13 with no turnovers. If he keeps this up Cleveland has a great shot.

Colts 14, Titans 9 (0:11, 2nd)
And just like that, the lead is cut, pending review. This game is going down to the wire, unless Manning keeps throwing pick after pick. Look for adjustments, as it is doubtful that he will struggle all game.

Lions 10, Patriots 10 (1:15, 2nd)
The Patriots have now tied the game, probably putting the teams on level ground for the 2nd half. This means the Pats will have 20 minutes to get their act together and play like a division leader.

Redskins 14, Falcons 10 (2:00, 2nd)
For what it's worth, Jason Campbell reminds me a lot of Doug Williams. The straight dropback, the release, the #17 for the Redskins. And the completion percentage hovering around 50.

Chiefs 14, Browns 14 (0:19, 2nd)
The Browns have struck back right before half. Back-and-forth, back-and-forth. Meanwhile, Atlanta, after falling behind 14-0, is on its way back: 14-9 with a point-after pending. Can you believe, a TD pass from Vick?

Lions 7, Patriots 3 (5:28, 2nd)
Ouch, that hurts, losing a fumble on first down inside the 5-yard line. It's these kind of things that shatter the confidence of 2-9 teams.

Colts 14, Titans 0 (7:18, 2nd)
After a sluggish start, the Colts are cruising. Arizona has also added to their lead, and the Saints have taken a lead.

Chiefs 14, Browns 7 (9:32, 2nd)
And the Chiefs have nabbed the lead. On another note, the Packers are no longer worthy of my time, unless they make this close again.

Cardinals 7, Rams 3 (10:38, 2nd)
That failed 4th down from the one could be a momentum shift.

Lions 7, Patriots 3 (13:44, 2nd)
This game might get interesting. I doubt many thought Detroit would be close; I didn't think it would be.

Bears 7, Vikings 0 (12:20, 2nd)
Chicago strikes first, on yet another Hester highlight. This is looking to be a low scoring game as one might have expected coming in. Meanwhile, the 49ers are close to striking first against the Saints.

Jets 17, Packers 0 (12:40, 2nd)
Pennington is on fire and the Packers are in huge trouble. Pennington has been a nice surprise this year and continues against Green Bay. If Favre weren't Favre, then McCarthy would almost have to follow Gibbs and get the young QB some experience for the future.

Redskins 14, Falcons 0 (13:44, 2nd)
Vick is clearly short on that 4th down sneak attempt. If this short field results in another Skins TD, this game is already over. (Although we all know about another recent 21-0 comeback.)

Browns 7, Chiefs 7 (14:19, 2nd)
The Chiefs have come back to tie this thing. I had the Chiefs tagged to rout the Browns, but noticed that many pundits were picking the Browns to upset. Clearly I underestimated the Browns after there horrible play against Cincy.

Colts 7, Titans 0 (3:51, 1st)
Manning had been off to a rough start but not so much with that pass.

Redskins 14, Falcons 0 (2:43, 1st)
Yep, the Falcons are in major free fall. Moss is back and already making a big difference in this game. Good pass from Campbell but better catch by Moss.

Jets 10, Packers 0 (4:45, 1st)
The Jets are relying on Chad's arm and it's working very well: he's already got 108 yards and a TD. The Rams mustered a field goal, cutting Arizona's lead to 7-3.

Redskins 7, Falcons 0 (5:48, 1st)
Vick 1 of 4 for 6 yards; it's early but not looking good. Meanwhile, the Jets and Rams are in the red zone.

Jets 3, Packers 0 (7:08, 1st quarter)
Turnover as Favre fumbles. Not looking good for the Packers early. Favre must hang on to the ball if the Pack are going to win.

49ers 0, Saints 0 (12:13, 1st quarter)
Lots of incomplete passes are slowing this game down as both teams are taking their shots. It seems that all this talk about Gore has gotten Nolan to try and open up the passing game. No luck so far.

Redskins 7, Falcons 0 (6:53, 1st quarter)
Ladell Betts carried the Skins to that TD. Campbell only threw one pass, but he also broke off a nice run. Lots of early scoring today.

Also, Suisham appears to be handling the kicking duties; Novak's days are numbered.

Cardinals 7, Rams 0 (7:38, 1st quarter)
The Rams leaky run D suggested that James might break out; he's got 32 yards on 5 carries...

Browns 7, Chiefs 0 (9:46, 1st quarter)
The Browns are already on the board as Charlie Frye went 4-4, 62 yards and the TD pass. His game against Cincinnati was horrible, but he's looking good today.


In this space, while the games progress, I will write down various comments on various games.